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Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the National Environmental Research Programme and Australian Research Council for funding. We thank Kerry Emanuel for generously providing synthetic cyclone tracks.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Marine Spatial Ecology Lab, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072, Australia

    Nicholas H. Wolff, Aaron Wong, Kristin Stolberg & Peter J. Mumby

  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072, Australia

    Nicholas H. Wolff & Peter J. Mumby

  3. Complex Systems Community, University of Siena, Via Roma 56, 53100, Siena, Italy

    Renato Vitolo

  4. Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB3 Townsville, Queensland, 4810, Australia

    Kenneth R. N. Anthony

Authors
  1. Nicholas H. Wolff
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  2. Aaron Wong
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  3. Renato Vitolo
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  4. Kristin Stolberg
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  5. Kenneth R. N. Anthony
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  6. Peter J. Mumby
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Correspondence to Nicholas H. Wolff or Peter J. Mumby.

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Communicated by Ecology Editor Dr. Stuart A. Sandin

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Wolff, N.H., Wong, A., Vitolo, R. et al. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance. Coral Reefs 35, 613–623 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-016-1400-9

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